Market Update: December 18-22; Futures & Commodities!

E-Mini Daily Clean Chart – December 17, 2017

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures - Weekly Outlook, Elliott Wave Forecast, Technical Analysis

Market continues to show signs of strength and most likely scenario at this point is bigger degree wave (5) with immediate target 2700-2730. ES must hold support at 2630-50 to meet those targets.

E-Mini 4H Chart – December 17, 2017

On the above 240Min chart, we see that unless ES drops below 2650-2630 support there are no real reasons to turn bearish.

S&P 500 Index Weekly Chart – December 17, 2017

S&P 500 Index - Weekly Forecast, Technical Analysis, Elliott Wave

On this arithmetic-scale chart, market has penetrated above upper-bound of channel. Usually, to have a better view on market tops (wave 5s or 5 of 3s), an Elliottician keeps both scales, arithmetic and logarithmic. Logarithmic scale is helpful when we deal with long-term price data (weekly/monthly). Next chart shows that SPX hasn’t quite yet finished its journey on this wave 5.

S&P 500 Index Monthly | Logarithmic Chart – December 17, 2017

Currently, SPX is on the last legs of wave (3) of [5] of III. We’re going to have a shallow pullback for a (4) of [5], another rally towards 3000-3200 before we get a strong bear market that may last several years. Since forecasts for LT cycles are difficult, the nature of the next mini-bear market will tell us more about the future. Until then, SPX still has more room on the upside towards 2700-2730.

Nasdaq 100 E-Mini Daily Chart – December 17, 2017

IWM Daily Chart – December 17, 2017

If IWM cannot rally above 154 these 2 weeks then wave (iv) has already started with 144-138 as 2 main target areas.

Gold 4H Chart – December 17, 2017

Gold Futures - Technical Analysis, Elliott Wave Forecast

Bounce from 1238.3 low has 5 sub-waves up and if pullback holds 1250-1248 support then GC will be setting up for a strong reversal for the end of year and start of 2018. Failure to hold above 1248 will signal another drop towards 1215-1200 monthly support.

GLD Daily Chart – December 17, 2017

Crude Oil 4H Chart – December 17, 2017

Crude Oil Futures - Elliott Wave Forecast, Technical Analysis

I remain bullish on short-term as long as CL doesn’t break 56.09 low and completes the above triangle. Another leg higher towards 60-61 is required. Careful if CL breaks below 56.09 low since that will expose 54.90-53.50 support!

Crude Oil Weekly Chart – December 17, 2017

Interesting to see whether we are going to get confirmation on green wave (4) or an invalidation on bearish view. Next year will be key for Crude.

ZB 4H Chart – December 17, 2017


SAFE TRADING, MERRY CHRISTMAS & HAPPY NEW YEAR!

WISHING ALL THE BEST TO YOU & YOUR FAMILY!